STAGE 3. CLarIFICATIOn of the PROGNOSTIC TASK

STAGE 2. FORMING AN AUXILIARY GROUP

SUBJECTS: DMP, Customer.

GOALS OF THE STAGE:

1. A realization of the procedure of selecting participants who will elaborate the prognosis [DMP, Customer];

2. A selection of normative-law documents necessary for the work [DMP, Customer].

DESCRIPTION OF the STAGE:

The Customer selects and forms an auxiliary group. The tasks of this group include an organization of the expert prognosis elaboration at all stages beginning from the third one and with the exclusion of the tenth one.

NOTES:

1. Under an auxiliary group we understand a group which includes an organizer of the prognostication, a specialist on a methodology and methods of prognostication (Prognosist) and also technical workers enrolled for elaborating prognoses. It is desirable to form an auxiliary group on a permanent basis according to an order of the management.

2. There are no valuable text-books or, what is more, normative documents for the specialists of an auxiliary group although, from our point of view, they are necessary.

SUBJECTS: DMP, Prognosist, Organizer.

GOAL OF THE stage:

The purpose of this stage is to introduce useful changes in the task formulation on the basis of opinions of new subjects, the information obtained in the second stage, and as a result of the following tasks solutions:

1. To compile a general plan of working up the prognosis and to indicate obligatorily the terms of realization of the stages [Organizer, Prognosist].

2. To indicate the detached potential users of the prognosis (while considering what decisions should be taken by DMP on the basis of the prognosis obtained) [DMP, Prognosist].

3. To appraise the quality of the prognosis necessary for DMP (in the case when it would be possible to form such a parameter) (DMP, Prognosist].

4. To coordinate between the subjects the main concepts being used: prognosis, expert, expert conclusion, expert prognosis quality [Prognosist].

5. To indicate sources, principles and amounts of financing all stages of the development of the prognosis within the framework of limitations indicated in the first stage [Organizer, Prognosist].

6. To study the technology as a system. From the following sub-multitudes possessing "system-significant" properties to ear-mark versions suitable for DMP, customer and experts:

· a set of the simplest types of the expert appraisals which may be used by DMP and experts [Prognosist];

· a set of algorithmic operations which allow to obtain chosen types of expert appraisals [Prognosist].

· a set of methods and procedures which allow to obtain new information from experts [Prognosist];

DESCRIPTION OF THE STAGE:

1. To conduct a thoroughly prepared interrogation of DMP with the purpose to elucidate and to formulate in a clear way all the requirements for the prognosis. These requirements may in particular concern the external relations of the object of prognostication being studied what is necessary in its system consideration;

2. To define more precisely conditions choice of elements of this stage while taking the basic restrictions into account.

NOTES:

1. We agree with the following opinion of J. Martino: "according to the general experience of the operations researchers, specialists in management and prognosists of all kinds which are enrolled for solving some problem an initial formulation of a problem is incomplete in a better case, but absolutely erroneous frequently" [55].

2. A preliminary task for a prognosis may be registered as a "technical task" project.