STAGE 1. PRIMARY PROGNOSTIC TASK

No yes

Actions*) quality prognosis*) making decisions

Experts presentation of quality of the

information prognosis^*)

12. Development 11. A posteriori yes 10. Use of

management appraisal of the prognosis for

Outcoming

information

for DMP

*) The contents of these terms is disclosed further in the text

Pict.1. Diagram of working up expert prognostic technology

We have realized very well that the suggested expert prognostic elaboration technology is not an ideal one, but is rather a new instrument which should be repeatedly tested for working up expert prognoses.

The above-mentioned diagram will be described in detail in the description of the stages. However, the following question is quite rightful: is it sufficiently complete? Why do we particularly discuss those stages which are shown in the diagram and why just in a such sequence?

Probably, the diagram is not complete. The presented version accumulates suggestions and developments described in the literature on the expert appraisals and certainly reflects the point of view of the author himself on the process of getting a prognosis with the help of a group of experts.

When developing real expert prognoses not all the mentioned stages do exist. In a number of cases the sequence of stages is also changed. However, from our point of view, such deviations from the diagram lead to a deterioration of the quality of the prognosis.

Subsequently, the descripting of the stages, the subjects realizing every task are shown in square brackets.

SUBJECTS: DMP, Customer.

GOALs of THE STAgE: 1. To answer the question: whether there is a sense of working up prognosis? If – yes, then: 2. To prepare primary prognostic task.

TASKS OF THE STAGE:

1. To indicate a forestalling period that is the period for which the prognosis is being worked up [DMP].

2. To indicate the purposes of the prognosis being worked up while singling out the basic for DMP and Customer [DMP or (and) Customer];

3. To indicate the form and scope of the prognosis and the necessary time for its development [DMP or (and) Customer];

4. To indicate the limitations, principles and scope of the prognosis elaboration financing on the whole [DMP or (and) Customer];

5. To appraise a possibility of enrolling experts, prognosists and organizers of prognostication of the required level to prognostic activity [DMP or (and) Customer] at the given limitations (allotted time, resources, etc.);

6. After the realization of the above-mentioned tasks it is necessary to preliminarily appraise the usefulness of the prognosis being developed [DMP].

DESCRIPTION of THE STAGE:

In the first part of this stage DMP prepares and gives the preliminary materials for working up the prognosis to the Customer (if there is one).

Subsequently the above-mentioned operations are realized jointly.

Thus, provided as a result of the discussion of these problems it becomes clear that the prognosis gives little to DMP – that is to the person who is its user, and in addition much time, a lot of effort and material resources are required for its elaboration, then at this stage the process of working up the prognosis is finished.

Otherwise, it is necessary to pass to the second stage, and in this case preparing a primary prognostic task and the instruction of DMP to start an elaboration of the prognosis is a concluding part of the first stage.

NOTES:

1. The tasks are solved in the sequence in which they are set. Therefore, only after the object of the prognostication, forestalling period and the purpose of the elaboration of prognosis are fixed it is possible to start solving other tasks.

2. While working up real prognoses not a small number of the incorrectly set and even just erroneous tasks for elaborating a prognosis is revealed.