STAGE 12. DEVELOPMENT OF MANAGEMENT ACTIONS

SUBJECTS: Customer, Organizer, Prognosist.

TASKS OF THE STAGE:

1. To accumulate and analyze the information on decisions made on the expert prognoses basis [Organizer].

2. To register expert conclusions systematically and to select experts from a number of potential candidates on the feed-back principle basis [Organizer, Prognosist].

3. To improve a methodic, information and organization support of the expertise (a replenishment and improvement of data banks, reference and normative materials) [Organizer, Prognosist].

4. To organize and to realize a training and re-training of experts, prognosist, organizers of the prognosis working-up on a permanent basis. The training of experts may include: a work with various methods and types of expert appraisals; a consideration of a specific character of the work in a group (for example, the group may make a more risky decision than an individual); an acquaintance with probable shortcomings, difficulties and delusions of the expert prognostication [Customer, Organizer, Prognosist].

5. To organize an archival accumulation of prognostic materials [Organizer].

6. To accomplish a selective control of the expert prognoses quality on a scientific and methodical basis [Prognosist].

DESCripTION OF THE sTAgE:

In that case when the an auxiliary group is formed on a permanent basis then on this stage it is possible to realize an analysis of the efficiency of the suggested technology and a control over correctness of its realization.

It would be desirable to note that two last stages represent essentially a feed-back block in a prognostication being considered as a management system. And in order to put this block in action it is necessary that the system of a continuous prognostication was functioning.

Within the frameworks of this stage and with the purposes of raising the quality of prognoses it is necessary to realize an expertise regularity principle, and continuity of its realization to solve above-mentioned problems.

NOTES:

1. Another reason for the necessity of supporting group forming is R. Ashby's principle. According to this principle it is not enough to limit oneself to partial measures in improving the management for a successful countervailing an active surrounding, but serious structural changes are necessary in the management sphere itself. A complexity of the basic structure and a decision making quickness in it should correspond to a complexity and quickness of changes going-on in the outer environment.

2. The additional materials on this stage are discussed in the book [79].

The expert prognostication technology suggested by us is far from a perfection. It is difficult to "embrace" the expert prognostication completely and to characterize it in detail as a process. Fortunately, in practice it is not always required.

The important thing is that it is necessary to improve the prognostication instruments in order to get high-quality prognoses while drawing high-class experts in.