STAGE 9. APRIORI APPRAISAL OF THE PROGNOSIS QUALITY

SUBJECTS:Prognosist, Expert.

GOAL OF the STAGE: To appraise the prognosis up to its realization and before the expiration of the prognosis forestalling period. Therefore, we have an opportunity to increase the degree of confidence of the prognosis in a sufficient way and to exert influence upon the decision making process on its basis.

DESCRIPTION OF THE STAGE:

An apriori appraisal of a passive expert prognosis quality is realized in two operations.

The first operation (before getting appraisals of the experts). It is necessary to appraise a quality of a solitary expert prognosis while proceeding from the following parameters:

· a timeliness of working up the prognosis itself;

· a degree of a clearness and lucidity of the prognostic task:

· an estimation of the quality (by its completeness, reliability, etc.) of the initial information given to the experts;

· well-groundness of postulates and assumptions being in the basis of the prognosis;

· a degree of a closeness to a discussed technology of prognostication;

· a level of competence of specialists participating in the prognostication development.

In addition, in the case when the prognosist and appointed expert set a function which reflects a dependence of resulting meaning of a certain prognostic procedure on the value of initial data it is possible to appraise apriori a sensibility of a function given on these elements. (See an example the Monograph [79]).

The second operation (the experts gave their appraisals). In this case in particular it is possible to judge the quality of a unitary expert prognosis by the following indices:

¾ kind of expert appraisals (if experts may choose it);

¾ dynamics of the appraisal variations in case of multi-round expertises;

¾ position of an appraisal on the scale with limitations given by an expert;

¾ mutual disposition of various parts of the same appraisal or the different simplest types of expert appraisals.

NOTES:

1. A complication of the expert appraisal type under the condition of its sufficient reliability may be expedient under certain conditions. A more informative and rather complicated by its form, but a reliable expert appraisal may prove to be more qualitative and, in particular, more exact in a certain situation. Therefore, in prognostications they are passing more often from the point to interval appraisals, and from the interval ones to the three-points and more complicated types of appraisals.

The trend of such a kind is obvious.

2. A detailed information on the apriori estimation of the passive expert prognosis quality is given in the monograph [79].