A brief report on the problem prepared by DMP or a specially chosen expert may serve as an orientation for experts for working up practical prognoses. The orientation may be realized in the form of an obligatory acquaintance of all the experts with printed materials on the problem. A specially compiled brief data summar, extracts from publications, prognostic data, information contained in the data base and other information may be used with this purpose in view. The orientation may include home works for experts, which favour their acquaintance with the materials available, for example a preparation of memoranda. Sometimes it is rather difficult to attain a profound acquaintance of experts with the materials of the orientation. So, it was noted that the experts, especially highly authoritative ones, ignore the use of a preliminary and current information. In this case it is possible to recommend a realization of the orientation in the form of a business game during which the experts are forced to use all the information).
STAGE 5. AN INFORMATION SUPPORT OF THE PARTICIPANTS OF THE EXPERT PROGNOSIS ELABORATION
SUBJECTS: Customer, Organizer, Prognosist.
Goals OF THE STAGE:
1. To provide the participants of interrogation with a preliminary information.
2. To create certain orientation for the experts concerning the problem being studied and an approach towards its solution, that is to form an "orientation".
DESCRIPTION OF THE STAGE:
First of all Organizer, Prognosist and Customer are scrutinizing the following problems:
¾ the purposes of getting a primary information;
¾ an organization of an information support;
¾ basic conditions of forming an adequate information image of the object of a prognostication.
The general scheme of the stage is similar to a description of any creative thinking process:
1. An accumulation of the information on the object.
2. An understanding of appraisals obtained (while taking a degree of trustworthiness of one or another information into account).
3. Conclusions.
4. A verification of the conclusions.
While realizing the above-mentioned parts of the stage the subjects should subsequently solve the following problems.
problems of the stage:
1. To work up the plan of the necessary information search which includes the sources of the necessary knowledge [Organizer, Customer].
2. To bring a supposed duration of the stage into correlation with the period of working up the prognosis as a whole. To make a correction if necessary [Organizer, Customer].
3. To work up the structure of the expert prognostication information support. This structure should reflect a specificity of the sphere to which the prognostication object belongs [Organizer, Customer].
4. To form an information fund including prognoses on the similar subjects. To create new and (or) to use existing data bases and knowledgement in computers [Organizer, Prognosist].
5. To provide an entry into the world information space on the latest information technology basis [Organizer, Customer].
6. To accomplish an analysis of the collected information [Organizer].
7. To develop the scheme of the information flow processing which would ensure a technical and technological base for solving the raised prognostic problems [Organizer, Prognosist].
8. To develop an expert "support system" including not only an integrated bank of the prognostic information, but also a dialogue system for training an expert in working with procedures and methods. A such system should help to use various kinds of expert appraisals in a correct way, to contain a description of the most common methodical delusionsand typical difficulties of the expert prognostication [Organizer, Prognosist].
9. To create an adequate information image of the object of prognostication [Organizer, Prognosist].
NOTES:
1. The fifth stage is one of the most important ones. But unfortunately it is often neglected. At the same time there is no doubt that the quality of a prognosis depends directly on the fact to what extent the information on the object being discussed and its external relations are diverse, reliable, complete and operative, and also to what extent it is accessible to the expert.
2. Without a well-adjusted organization of the information support it is difficult to expect the obtaining of high-quality prognoses on a permanent basis.
3. The information support should correspond to a methodical, program and organization support of the expert prognostication.
4. The system-oriented principle is the main methodological condition for ensuring an efficient information support. Just in a such way V.S. Remisov approaches to the information support in his work [77]: "The information system should possibly form a complete information image – an information model of the object".
5. It is extremely difficult to form an adequate information image of the object because of the following reasons:
¾ the object may be quite complicated;
¾ when forming an information image distortions are possible which are introduced with the very process of prognostication;
¾ a lack of the information including that one related to its concealment because of the regime and financial restrictions.
GOAL OF THE STAGE–toformulate a prognostication task.
DESCRIPTION OF THE STAGE:
On this stage Customer, DMP, Organizer, Prognosist and also, if it’s necessary, a preliminarily selected Expert are formulating finally a prognostication task which may be legalized as a "technical prognostic task".
While taking the information obtained on the fourth and fifth stages into account, Prognosist solves the problems of this stage and, therefore, transforms six system-forming elements of the expert prognostication technology into its system-composing elements.
problems of the stage:
1. To describe the prognostication object with such a degree of detail which is necessary for working up the prognosis [DMP].
2. To analyze the object of prognostication and work up its classification if it’s necessary [Prognosist, Expert].
3. To select the system components possessing "system-defining properties and, therefore, to determine finally:
· the kind(s) of expert appraisals which will be used. (It is necessary that the form of the prognosis would satisfy DMP and be perceptible by experts.) [Prognosist];
· an algorithmic operation which allows to get expert appraisals of the selected type (Prognosist];
· the method or procedure which allow to get a new knowledge from experts [Prognosist];
· the method of forming the expert group(s) and the rules of their withdrawal from its staff [Prognosist];
· the method of interrogating experts [Prognosist]
· the method of selecting experts into a group [Prognosist];
· the principles on which will be an expertise based [Prognosist].
NOTES:
1. If the interrogation makes a provision for a questionnaire then the Prognosist should think over carefully both the elaboration questions for the questionnaire and its structure.
2. Providing according to appraisals of Prognosist the next stage would be rather a long one then the Organizer has to think over and ensure the conditions for the activity of all the expertise participants.
